Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.010320 0.011655 0.013099 0.014776 0.016672 0.018750 0.021200
2025-11-30 0.008329 0.010198 0.012388 0.015146 0.018530 0.022552 0.027701
2025-12-07 0.006858 0.008872 0.011366 0.014684 0.018991 0.024401 0.031733
2025-12-14 0.005906 0.007993 0.010694 0.014454 0.019565 0.026286 0.035828
2025-12-21 0.005112 0.007192 0.009991 0.014042 0.019771 0.027611 0.039202
2025-12-28 0.004763 0.006940 0.009973 0.014521 0.021190 0.030648 0.045153
2026-01-04 0.004413 0.006638 0.009839 0.014794 0.022303 0.033309 0.050764
2026-01-11 0.004135 0.006406 0.009770 0.015137 0.023522 0.036191 0.056923
2026-01-18 0.003783 0.006022 0.009433 0.015026 0.024016 0.037991 0.061534
2026-01-25 0.003498 0.005715 0.009179 0.015009 0.024636 0.040008 0.066628
2026-02-01 0.003199 0.005355 0.008808 0.014763 0.024850 0.041369 0.070731
2026-02-08 0.003013 0.005162 0.008685 0.014909 0.025710 0.043836 0.076874
2026-02-15 0.002785 0.004883 0.008404 0.014772 0.026096 0.045567 0.081959
2026-02-22 0.002662 0.004776 0.008405 0.015123 0.027360 0.048912 0.090204
2026-03-01 0.002420 0.004436 0.007972 0.014663 0.027127 0.049580 0.093615
2026-03-08 0.002239 0.004190 0.007683 0.014433 0.027288 0.050955 0.098431
2026-03-15 0.002049 0.003911 0.007313 0.014021 0.027066 0.051593 0.101876
2026-03-22 0.001996 0.003887 0.007410 0.014500 0.028578 0.055611 0.112252
2026-03-29 0.001920 0.003811 0.007402 0.014773 0.029706 0.058967 0.121582
2026-04-05 0.001858 0.003757 0.007430 0.015115 0.030995 0.062735 0.132063
2026-04-12 0.001748 0.003598 0.007241 0.015004 0.031350 0.064646 0.138820
2026-04-19 0.001657 0.003470 0.007105 0.014987 0.031895 0.066981 0.146667
2026-04-26 0.001549 0.003300 0.006868 0.014742 0.031935 0.068258 0.152309